November 3 is fast approaching: the date on which the midterm elections will be held in the United States. This is an election cycle in which the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. It is clear that, at the moment, the situation does not look too promising for the Republican Party. According to HQ Decision Desk, as of October 21, the Democrats had a 78% chance of winning the House and a 56% chance of regaining the Senate. Not only that, but the polling average from Real Clear Politics, which tracks general voting intentions for Congress, showed the Democrats with a lead of more than eight points. Add to this the fact that, typically, the party of the sitting president loses both chambers in the midterms held during his second term: this, in fact, happened in 1974, 1986, 1998, 2006, and 2014.
In short, the outlook for the Grand Old Party is far from rosy. This is also because, beyond historical precedents, Republicans are primarily struggling due to the high cost of fuel, caused by a war—the one with Iran—that is unpopular among large segments of the U.S. electorate. Added to this is the hostility that a significant portion of Americans feel toward the data centers needed to power artificial intelligence—infrastructure that, conversely, the White House is strongly supporting in the name of Washington’s geopolitical and technological competition with Beijing. All of this obviously poses a significant headache for Donald Trump, who—should the Republicans lose even just one of the two chambers of Congress—would risk finding himself in the role of a lame duck. For the U.S. president, however, it is imperative that his party retain control of at least the Senate, to limit losses and avoid becoming too politically weakened.
It is also in this context that, in recent weeks, the White House occupant has taken various measures to try to combat rising living costs. It is with this in mind that, for example, he reached a controversial agreement on diesel with Vladimir Putin. He also recently announced an aid plan worth eight billion dollars for farmers struggling due to the high cost of fuel and fertilizers. It is unclear whether these measures will be enough to restore support for the Republican Party. The only thing certain is that they are primarily aimed at stemming Democratic competition in agricultural states, where, at least according to the polls, the Donkey is currently on the rise.
At this point, it would seem that the Republicans are completely doomed. Undoubtedly, their situation appears rather problematic. At the same time, however, we must look at the bigger picture. While the Grand Old Party’s main vulnerability lies in the high cost of living, the Democrats, for their part, face a significant unknown: the far-left candidates who emerged during this summer’s congressional primaries (just think of Abdul El-Sayed or Angie Nixon, who are running for Senate seats in Michigan and Florida, respectively). Well, it is well known that the Democratic establishment fears that such extremist figures could alienate swing voters, Hispanic voters, and moderates from the Democratic Party.
But that’s not all. Voter trends in the Democratic primaries have shown that, very often, far-left candidates have won the votes of white and generally affluent citizens, without managing to capture those of blue-collar workers. The working class, for its part, fears policies rooted in green extremism and poorly controlled immigration: which is why, in the 2024 presidential election, workers in the Rust Belt voted for Trump. Moreover, one must be cautious about polls. As U.S. pollster Patrick Ruffini pointed out in a recent interview given to La Verità, it is possible that, especially in agricultural states like Iowa and Kansas, the Democrats are currently overestimated. Nor should it be overlooked that, during some Democratic primaries this summer, certain poll results proved to be decidedly incorrect.
Finally, even assuming the polls are entirely accurate, the overall picture appears complex, especially regarding the Senate. While it’s true that this year, with James Talarico, the Democrats are notably competitive in Texas, on the other hand, Democratic candidates are showing signs of fatigue in Minnesota and Michigan: according to Real Clear Politics, their average lead is currently less than three points. Let’s be clear: there is no doubt that the Republicans face a steep uphill battle. However, a Democratic wave in November—at least for now—seems far from a foregone conclusion. The overall picture, in the end, could hold some surprises.
