Overview of market trends in 2026
The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market in Italy in 2026 will see moderate consolidation, characterized by stable transaction volumes and growth in average values, particularly in the banking, technology, telecommunications, energy, and luxury sectors. Data for 2025 indicate an aggregate value of announced transactions of approximately $64 billion (equivalent to approximately €59-60 billion, depending on average exchange rates), representing growth of 21.6% compared to 2024 and 1,750 announced transactions (+16%), while closed transactions stand at around 1,390 (-8%), as explained in PwC Global and Italian M&A trends 2025 and Outlook 2026. This trend is projected into 2026 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by Italian GDP growth estimated at 0.7% (UPB February 2026 and Bank of Italy December 2025) or 0.8% (ISTAT December 2025 and European Commission), above the European averages in a context of monetary stability.
In the financial sector, which significantly supports growth with approximately 220 announced transactions worth $27 billion, there have been significant domestic consolidations, such as the acquisition of Mediobanca by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and BPER Banca’s bid for Banca Popolare di Sondrio, which reduce the fragmentation of the Italian banking system. Energy and utilities show a high concentration, favoring integrated platforms. The technology sector, driven by AI and digital infrastructure, is rebounding with moderate growth in mid-market deals, while luxury goods remain at high levels. Overall, Italy exceeds the European average in terms of resilience, positioning itself as an attractive market for strategic investors and funds with abundant liquidity.
Current financial, regulatory, and reform dynamics
Financial dynamics in 2026 facilitate M&A transactions through greater access to credit and private equity instruments, with stabilized ECB interest rates (deposit facility at 2.00% in February 2026, unchanged from June 2025) and asset repricing that attracts foreign capital (ECB Key interest rates). The Corporate Crisis Code supports restructuring, reducing risks for buyers in sectors experiencing structural crises.
From a regulatory perspective, the Golden Power, reinforced by the “economic security test” introduced in the 2026 Budget Law (Law No. 199/2025), protects strategic assets by limiting foreign acquisitions in energy and telecommunications, but favors internal consolidation. At the national level, the Meloni government’s economic reforms, contained in the 2026 Budget Law, accelerate these dynamics:
the reduction of the second IRPEF tax rate (from 35% to 33% for the €28-50,000 bracket), the increase in the acquisition cost of new capital goods (up to 180% for investments of up to €2.5 million, with an emphasis on green and intangible assets), the refinancing of tax credits for Special Economic Zones (SEZs in southern Italy) and Simplified Logistics Zones (SLZs) with significant allocations for the three-year period 2026-2028, as well as privatizations such as MPS and ENI shares, which free up resources for industrial consolidation (MEF – Main measures of the 2026 budget law). These measures strengthen financial stability, with a public deficit forecast at 2.6-2.8% of GDP.
At the European level, the Omnibus package and the reforms of the Capital Markets Union (CMU) contribute to simplifying the regulatory framework, reducing pressure on sustainability and digital data, with positive impacts on M&A in tech and AI. The CMU facilitates cross-border investments, with proposals to harmonize takeover and screening rules for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), supporting strategic market normalization while maintaining national priorities on critical assets.
Forecasts for national interest and economic sovereignty
In 2026, M&A transactions are expected to contribute to greater competitiveness for Italian companies, with an estimated impact of 0.1-0.2% of GDP through synergies, innovation, and the creation of “national champions” in strategic sectors such as energy and fintech, in line with the Draghi report on European integration. Effective management of post-pandemic debt maturities strengthens economic resilience, reducing external dependencies and promoting exports: in 2025, the trade surplus reached +€50.746 billion (+€48.287 billion in 2024), with export growth of +3.3% (ISTAT – Foreign trade and import prices – December 2025).
These dynamics protect the national interest by promoting sovereignty in critical assets, as demonstrated by public control in operations such as TIM-KKR (with a 16% stake held by the MEF). Government reforms, focused on budgetary discipline and selective stimulus, have regained market confidence, positioning Italy as a stable pillar in the Eurozone, with public debt expected to be around 137.4% of GDP in 2026 (Reuters – Italy budget watchdog UPB raises 2026 GDP growth to 0.7%). Forecasts indicate limited risks, mitigated by fiscal policies such as raising the flat tax threshold and incentives for salaried employment, which maximize benefits without excessive debt. In summary, a selective approach to M&A in 2026 will strengthen national interest, supporting resilient growth, productivity, and economic independence in a context of post-crisis normalization.
Outlook and expected scenarios in the current geopolitical context
In 2026, the geopolitical landscape remains marked by structural trade frictions (especially US-EU tariffs and restrictions on Chinese technology exports), persistent energy instability, and the evolution of ongoing conflicts (the Ukrainian crisis and tensions in the Middle East). These factors are pushing towards greater “geopolitical agility” in M&A operations: Italian companies are favoring domestic deals or nearshoring to mitigate the risks of supply chain disruptions and indirect sanctions, reducing exposure to volatile trade flows. In a scenario of partial de-escalation (e.g., negotiated truces or easing of energy sanctions), opportunities for outbound transactions in areas of strategic interest (sub-Saharan Africa, Western Balkans) could emerge, while in the event of escalation (e.g., new rounds of tariffs), the trend toward intra-European consolidations protected by EU FDI screening would strengthen. Increased global state interventionism, with local demands and non-tariff barriers, accentuates the need to preserve national control over sensitive assets, favoring a selective approach that prioritizes resilience against external shocks. In summary, the geopolitical context could translate into a selective increase in domestic M&A value, with an emphasis on transactions that strengthen Italy’s strategic autonomy in an environment of persistent uncertainty.
Further information
For further information on the Meloni government’s fiscal measures, see the analysis dedicated to tax reform: How the Meloni government wants to change the tax system.
For data on the Italian M&A market in 2025-2026, please refer to the PwC report: PwC Global and Italian M&A trends 2025 and Outlook 2026.
The official text of the 2026 Budget Law is available in the Official Gazette or on the MEF website: Main measures of the 2026 Budget Law.